Pollgebra

Math over punditry

I’m a stats nerd. I’m a political nerd. Overall, I am a nerd. But I’m using that for good.

If you followed me in 2020, you know that I called all seven swing states correctly, all before any media outlet, and days before some of them were called by anyone else. I used a fairly simple formula that compared voting trends to where the outstanding votes still were.

I have now injected steroids into that formula and created Pollgebra.com, a completely free website that relies on math (a lot of math) to call elections long before the pundits do. It also has a bunch of other features that allow users to filter and sort past and current election results, counties in each race (including population and share of previous vote), and a whole bunch of other nerdy things.

Elections aren’t about entertainment. They’re about results. Also, you can sign up to get an email the moment Pollgebra’s math calls a particular race. Or a few of the races. Or every one of the races.

The website has easy links to check if you’re registered to vote, dates of all the outstanding primaries and run-offs, and tons more election information. If you’re a nerd like me, you’ll love it. And if you’re a nerd like me, you might have other ideas for what I can add to it and I’m happy to hear them.